Spot prices for the week averaged $33/MWh in South Australia, $26/MWh in Victoria, $25/MWh in New South Wales and $22/MWh in Queensland. These prices represent a reduction from the previous week, consistent with a reduction in demand.
In Tasmania the spot price averaged $101/MWh. This represented an increase of almost a quarter compared to the previous week. A reduction in available capacity priced at less than $100/MWh on Thursday was the main contributor.
The price volatility index was below the longer term trend in all regions, with the index in Tasmania around double compared to the previous week.
Turnover in the energy market was around $118 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week was $644,000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmanian totalled $224 000 or 1 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around 40 per cent of trading intervals in Tasmania and 20 per cent across the market. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 53 or 16 per cent of all trading intervals.
The analysis is provided for information only. It does not constitute business advice and should not be relied upon as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither AER nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis, or its conclusions.
AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1: national demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2: volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Spot prices peaked at $295/MWh in South Australia on Thursday evening and at $248/MWh in Tasmania the same day. Spot prices peaked in the other regions on Sunday evening at around $150/MWh.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $644 000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. A continuing network outage in Victoria was complete during the week. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmania totalled $224 000 or 1 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region. There was little capacity offered in Tasmanian for all services priced between $1/MW and $100/MW. The requirement for regulation services increased from 30MW to 50MW on Friday 1 July
Figure 4: volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.71
0.55
0.80
1.25
0.24
1.50
4.56
1.75
Previous week ($/MW)
1.81
0.53
0.77
1.31
0.24
1.77
6.86
1.55
Last quarter ($/MW)
2.36
1.50
1.41
1.32
2.28
2.13
3.48
1.70
Market cost($1000s)
85
27
53
29
1
28
156
41
% of energy market
0.09
0.03
0.05
0.03
0.00
0.03
0.16
0.04
Figure 5: Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
10.36
1.05
1.05
1.64
1.37
1.05
1.05
1.27
Previous week ($/MW)
1.49
1.05
1.05
1.33
1.28
1.05
1.05
1.07
Market cost($1000s)
105
11
15
9
17
31
29
7
% of energy market
0.48
0.05
0.07
0.04
0.08
0.14
0.13
0.03
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6: daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7: regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8: prices for raise services
Figure 9: prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10: Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11: Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present for both raise and lower services the requirement for each service over the week.
Figure 12: raise requirements
Figure 13: lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present for both raise and lower services the Tasmanian requirement for each service over the week.
