Spot prices for the week averaged $32/MWh in South Australia, $26/MWh in Victoria, $25/MWh in New South Wales and $18/MWh in Queensland. These prices show a reduction from the previous week, consistent with a further reduction in demand.
In Tasmania the spot price averaged $103/MWh, similar to the previous week.
The price volatility index was around half the longer term trend in Queensland, but consistent for the other mainland regions. In Tasmania, the volatility index reduced slightly from the previous week.
Turnover in the energy market was around $112 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week was $445,000 or 0.4 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmanian totalled $135,000 or 0.6 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Demand forecasts produced four and twelve hours ahead varied from actual by more than five per cent in around 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market with 40 per cent of trading intervals in South Australia affected. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 35 or 10 per cent of all trading intervals.
The analysis is provided for information only. It does not constitute business advice and should not be relied upon as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither AER nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis, or its conclusions.
AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1: National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2: Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Spot prices peaked at $563/MWh in Tasmania on Monday evening. In South Australia spot prices peaked twice at $149/MWh on Thursday. New South Wales and Victoria both peaked at $65/MWh, while spot prices in Queensland peaked at $39/MWh.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $445 000 or 0.4 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. A short notice transmission outage in Victoria on Wednesday led to an increased requirement for lower contingency services. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmania totalled $135 000, or 0.6 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region. Twice on Tuesday, interruptions to the AGC status of units in Tasmania resulted in zero despatch for both regulation services and prices at the market cap.
Figure 4: Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.12
0.72
0.78
1.37
0.23
0.49
1.68
1.53
Previous week ($/MW)
1.71
0.55
0.8
1.25
0.24
1.5
4.56
1.75
Last quarter ($/MW)
2.36
1.5
1.41
1.32
2.28
2.13
3.48
1.7
Market cost($1000s)
108
36
52
32
2
4
40
36
% of energy market
0.12%
0.04%
0.06%
0.04%
0%
0%
0.04%
0.04%
Figure 5: Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.26
1.05
1.05
1.43
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
Previous week ($/MW)
10.36
1.05
1.05
1.64
1.37
1.05
1.05
1.27
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
22
10
12
12
13
31
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.1%
0.05%
0.05%
0.05%
0.06%
0.14%
0.12%
0.04%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6: Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7: Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8: Prices for raise services
Figure 9: Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10: Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11: Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present for both raise and lower services the requirement for each service over the week.
Figure 12: Raise requirements
Figure 13: Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present for both raise and lower services the Tasmanian requirement for each service over the week.
