Spot prices for the week were around 20 per cent lower across the mainland compared to the previous week, averaging $29/MWh in South Australia, $26/MWh in Victoria, $23/MWh in New South Wales and $18/MWh in Queensland. Peak demand was around 5 per cent lower across these regions on the same basis.
In Tasmania the spot price averaged $127/MWh, continuing its upward trend.
The price volatility index was consistent with the longer term trend in all mainland regions. In Tasmania the volatility index was level with the previous week.
Turnover in the energy market was around $112 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week increased to $660 000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. The increase was primarily the result of a planned network outage in Victoria. The cost for ancillary services in Tasmania totalled $130 000 or 0.5 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around a quarter of all trading intervals across the market with around half of all trading intervals in South Australia and Tasmania affected. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 31 or 9 per cent of all trading intervals.
The analysis is provided for information only—it does not constitute business advice and should not be relied on as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither the AER nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis or its conclusions.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Spot prices peaked at $167/MWh in Tasmania on Thursday evening. Across the mainland maximum spot prices ranged from $39/MWh in Queensland to $54/MWh in South Australia.
At 3.10 pm on Saturday, following the unplanned loss of a transmission element in New South Wales, flows into New South Wales on QNI were reduced by more than 200MW in one despatch interval. This resulted in a 5-minute price in Queensland of $-68/MWh. The price returned to normal within 10 minutes.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $660 000 or 0.6 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. A planned transmission outage in Victoria resulted in an increased requirement for lower contingency services from Tuesday to Friday. Small local requirements for ancillary services were required in Queensland, following the unplanned outage of the Liddell to Muswellbrook 330kV transmission line in New South Wales on Saturday afternoon.
The cost for ancillary services in Tasmania totalled $129 000 or 0.5 per cent of the energy market turnover for that region.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.47
0.77
0.91
1.67
0.16
1.09
6.71
1.84
Previous week ($/MW)
1.29
0.58
0.87
1.44
0.17
1.56
2.57
1.79
Last quarter ($/MW)
2.43
0.81
0.99
1.07
0.23
0.96
2.96
1.51
Market cost($1000s)
78
41
62
39
1
23
244
43
% of energy market
0.09%
0.05%
0.07%
0.05%
0%
0.03%
0.28%
0.05%
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.21
1.05
1.05
1.14
1.72
1.05
1.05
1.11
Previous week ($/MW)
1.48
1.05
1.06
1.36
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.05
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
11
10
11
10
22
31
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.05%
0.04%
0.04%
0.04%
0.09%
0.13%
0.11%
0.04%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
