A cold snap late in the week led to new winter record demand in Victoria and Queensland and a near record in New South Wales. Prices averaged $46/MWh in South Australia, $42/MWh in New South Wales and Victoria, and $26/MWh in Queensland. These prices represented an increase of around a quarter compared to the previous week. Flows south into New South Wales continued to average around 900MW reflecting the high level of available capacity in Queensland.
In Tasmania the spot price averaged $170/MWh—a further increase compared to the previous week and the highest since joining the market. Network constraints on Wednesday evening and Friday morning led to out of merit order dispatch for a number of generators. The five-minute price spiked to $9000/MWh at 7.25pm on Wednesday and was above $8000/MWh for 40 minutes on Friday morning.
Turnover in the energy market rose again to around $190 million, while the total cost of ancillary services for the week returned to normal levels at around $450 000 or 0.2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Demand forecasts produced four and 12 hours ahead varied from the actual by more than 5 per cent in around a quarter of all trading intervals across the market with around 40 per cent of all trading intervals in South Australia and Tasmania affected. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 108 or a third of all trading intervals, the highest since November last year.
The analysis is provided for information only—it does not constitute business advice and should not be relied on as a substitute for obtaining detailed analysis or advice about the operation of the national electricity market. Neither the AER nor any of its employees make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information in the analysis or its conclusions.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Spot prices peaked at $7386/MWh in Tasmania on Friday morning. Maximum spot prices in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia were around $300/MWh late in the week.
There was one occasion in Tasmania where the spot price was greater than $5000/MWh. This occurred at 9.30am on Friday. Network constraints affected as much as 160MW of lower priced generation, mostly at Gordon.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services for the week returned to normal levels at $447 000 or 0.2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. High prices for raise regulation and lower 6 second in Tasmania on Friday morning contributed around $80 000 to the total cost, coincident with the high prices in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.94
0.49
0.87
1.53
0.15
0.15
1.02
1.52
Previous week ($/MW)
1.09
0.75
0.92
1.49
0.16
0.15
1.18
1.43
Last quarter ($/MW)
2.09
0.91
1.24
0.58
0.19
0.25
1.14
1.14
Market cost($1000s)
46
24
59
33
1
1
24
33
% of energy market
0.03%
0.02%
0.04%
0.02%
0%
0%
0.02%
0.02%
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.39
1.05
1.05
5.32
6.5
1.05
1.05
1.12
Previous week ($/MW)
126.84
1.05
2.2
4.53
2.72
1.05
1.05
2.57
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
13
10
12
45
81
31
26
10
% Tasmania of energy market
0.04%
0.03%
0.03%
0.12%
0.22%
0.08%
0.07%
0.03%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
