Prices across the mainland were aligned for more than 90 per cent of the time, averaging $21/MWh in Queensland, $23/MWh in New South Wales, $24/MWh in Victoria and $28/MWh in South Australia.
In Tasmania average spot prices increased by 18 per cent to $96/MWh. Sustained spot prices of almost $800/MWh occurred on Friday morning. High demand, low reserves late in the week, and no capacity priced between $145/MWh and $795/MWh during this period contributed.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $103 million, with a total cost of ancillary services for the week of around $286 000 or 0.3 per cent of turnover. Turnover in Tasmania was $19 million, with ancillary services totaling $813 000 or four per cent of turnover. Prices for raise ancillary services reached $10 000 on Monday and Thursday and accounted for two-thirds of the cost. These services are funded by generators.
Demand forecasts produced four and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. In South Australia demand errors occurred in around two thirds of all trading intervals on the same basis. Demand was up to 440 MW or almost 40 per cent higher than forecast 30 minutes ahead on Saturday afternoon. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 57 or 17 per cent of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The maximum spot prices for the week across the mainland ranged from $70/MWh in Queensland to $90/MWh in South Australia—all occurring at 7pm on Thursday. In Tasmania, the spot price reached $3806/MWh at 1pm on Monday. The interaction of energy and ancillary services resulted in prices for 6 second raise services of $10 000/MW at the same time.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week for the mainland. There were, however forecast and actual lack of reserve (LOR1) conditions on Thursday and Friday in Tasmania.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $286 000 or 0.3 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.45
0.93
0.95
0.99
0.2
0.23
1.31
1.59
Previous week ($/MW)
1.14
0.56
0.88
1.21
0.15
0.17
1.03
1.55
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.43
0.69
0.98
1.36
0.16
0.12
1.16
1.58
Market cost($1000s)
78
50
66
22
2
2
32
35
% of energy market
0.09%
0.06%
0.08%
0.03%
0%
0%
0.04%
0.04%
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
54.01
1.05
1.05
4.98
13.61
1.06
1.06
1.25
Previous week ($/MW)
1.43
1.05
1.06
1.22
3.81
1.08
1.05
1.09
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
508
10
11
42
174
31
26
11
% Tasmania of energy market
2.62%
0.05%
0.06%
0.22%
0.9%
0.16%
0.13%
0.05%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
