Spot prices for the week averaged $33/MWh in Queensland and $43/MWh in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. These prices represented an increase of around half compared to that of the previous week. A reduction in capacity available at low prices in Victoria contributed to this increase. In Tasmania average spot prices were around the same as the previous week at $63/MWh.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $146 million, with a total cost of ancillary services for the week of around $500 000 or 0.3 per cent of turnover of the mainland. In Tasmania turnover was $13 million, with ancillary services totaling $350 000 or three per cent of turnover. The price for raise 6 second services reached $10 000/MW between 3.30 pm and 3.45 pm on Sunday when there was insufficient availability of these services as a result of lightning.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. In South Australia and Tasmania demand errors occurred in around half and a third of all trading intervals respectively, on the same basis. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 72 or 21 per cent of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure one sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure two compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure three compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The maximum spot prices for the week were $3332/MWh in Queensland occurring on Tuesday morning, $829/MWh in New South Wales, $768/MWh in Victoria and $650/MWh in South Australia, all occurring at 6.30 pm on Monday. In Tasmania, the spot price reached $195/MWh at 4 pm on Sunday.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $505 000 or 0.5 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. Local requirements in Queensland on Tuesday were as a result of a network outage in New South Wales. These local requirements cost nearly $80 000.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.29
1.53
1.6
1.58
0.36
0.44
4.22
1.35
Previous week ($/MW)
1.97
1.47
1.13
1.42
0.21
0.29
1.36
1.47
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.43
0.69
0.98
1.36
0.16
0.12
1.16
1.58
Market cost($1000s)
129
86
115
34
3
4
104
30
% of energy market
0.09%
0.06%
0.08%
0.02%
0%
0%
0.07%
0.02%
In Tasmania, ancillary services totaled $351 000 or three per cent of turnover. The price for raise 6 second reached $10 000/MW between 3.30 pm and 3.45 pm on Sunday when the requirement was not met. Constraints invoked to manage the loss of both Farrell to Sheffield lines to lightning increased the requirement for raise 6 second by close to 70MW and removed around 70MW from the total bid in availability of raise 6 second in the region of 110MW. The constraints were removed from 3.50 pm.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
26.34
1.05
1.05
1.05
2.35
1.07
1.08
1.1
Previous week ($/MW)
13.36
1.05
1.06
1.06
13.39
1.07
1.06
1.11
Tasmania market cost($1000s)
225
9
10
9
30
32
27
9
% Tasmania of energy market
1.8%
0.07%
0.08%
0.07%
0.24%
0.25%
0.21%
0.07%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
