Spot prices across the mainland for the week ranged from $21/MWh in Queensland to $30/MWh in South Australia. These prices represented a decrease of around a third compared to the previous week. A reduction in peak demand of around five per cent in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia contributed to this decrease.
In Tasmania, spot prices averaged $63/MWh, consistent with the previous week.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $89 million, with a total cost of ancillary services for the week of around $360,000 or 0.4 per cent of turnover. In Tasmania turnover in the energy market was $12 million, with ancillary services totaling $140,000 or one per cent of turnover. This represented the lowest cost for ancillary services in Tasmania since the end of July.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. In South Australia and Tasmania demand errors occurred in around two thirds and one third of all trading intervals respectively, on the same basis. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 25 or seven per cent of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email peter.adams@aer.gov.au; mark.wilson@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure one sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure two compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure three compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The maximum spot prices for the week were around $170/MWh in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, all occurring at 7pm on Tuesday. In Queensland, the maximum spot price for the week of $82/MWh occurred on Thursday evening. In Tasmania, the spot price reached $74/MWh on Thursday morning.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast throughout the week.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $360,000 or 0.4 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.02
1.38
1.02
1.2
0.2
0.28
1.25
1.39
Previous week ($/MW)
2.29
1.53
1.6
1.58
0.36
0.44
4.22
1.35
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.43
0.69
0.98
1.36
0.16
0.12
1.16
1.58
Market cost($1000s)
116
79
73
26
2
3
31
30
% of energy market
0.13%
0.09%
0.08%
0.03%
0%
0%
0.03%
0.03%
In Tasmania, ancillary service costs totalled $137,000 or one per cent of turnover. The cost of raise 6 second fell from $225,000 the previous week to $21,000.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.45
1.05
1.05
1.07
1.66
1.05
1.05
1.08
Previous week ($/MW)
26.34
1.05
1.05
1.05
2.35
1.07
1.08
1.1
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
21
9
10
9
21
31
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.18%
0.08%
0.08%
0.07%
0.18%
0.26%
0.21%
0.07%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
