Spot prices for the week averaged $16/MWh in Queensland and $20/MWh in New South Wales and Victoria, down compared to the previous week. Network outages in Victoria and South Australia, affecting the Murraylink and Heywood interconnectors, restricted imports into South Australia for much of the week. As a result the price in South Australia averaged $41/MWh, an increase compared to the previous week. Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $70 million. The Victorian network outages also led to increased requirements for ancillary services. The total cost of ancillary services for the week increased to around $1 million or 1.5 per cent of turnover.
The average spot price in Tasmania was $66/MWh with turnover for the week of $12 million. The cost of ancillary services was $122 000 or 1 per cent of turnover.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia and Tasmania, occurring in more than half of trading intervals. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 53, or 16 per cent, of trading intervals. Demand variations were the main contributor.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was about $1 million or 1.5 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. A short notice outage in Victoria on Monday led increased requirements for lower 5 minute and lower 60 second services. South Australia was excluded from providing these services. The network element was returned to service on Wednesday. On Friday a further outage in Victoria, which lasted until Sunday, led to similar increases in ancillary services requirements. Prices for lower 5 minute reached $68/MW at times.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.01
0.47
0.93
1.62
0.8
4.71
11.05
1.78
Previous week ($/MW)
2.37
1.03
1.18
1.98
0.24
0.35
1.57
1.9
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.62
0.91
1
1.36
0.2
0.64
2.29
1.56
Market cost($1000s)
55
25
64
35
19
239
583
39
% of energy market
0.08%
0.04%
0.09%
0.05%
0.03%
0.34%
0.83%
0.06%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was about $122 000 or 1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.18
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.17
1.05
1.05
1.06
Previous week ($/MW)
61.43
1.05
1.05
7.82
2.21
1.07
1.06
11.5
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
11
10
10
9
15
32
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.1%
0.09%
0.08%
0.08%
0.13%
0.27%
0.22%
0.08%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
