Average spot prices for the week were $23/MWh in Queensland and $24/MWh in New South Wales and Victoria. These prices represented an increase from the lows of the previous week, consistent with the reduction in low priced capacity. Prices in South Australia averaged $27/MWh, a reduction of around a third from the previous week. Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $84 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was around $560 000 or 0.5 per cent of turnover.
The average spot price in Tasmania was $68/MWh, consistent with the previous week. The turnover for the week was $12 million. The cost of ancillary services was $210 000 or 2 per cent of turnover.
Demand forecasts produced four and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in approximately 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia and Tasmania occurring in around two thirds and one third of all trading intervals respectively. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 23, or 7 per cent, of trading intervals. Demand variations were the main contributor.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, 14th floor, 13 Grenfell Street, Adelaide SA 5001 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was around $560 000 or 0.5 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. Network outages in Victoria on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday led to increased requirements for lower contingency services. Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.57
0.68
1.47
1.65
0.44
2.28
5.31
1.7
Previous week ($/MW)
1.01
0.47
0.93
1.62
0.8
4.71
11.05
1.78
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.62
0.91
1
1.36
0.2
0.64
2.29
1.56
Market cost($1000s)
86
37
102
36
5
63
200
37
% of energy market
0.1%
0.04%
0.12%
0.04%
0.01%
0.07%
0.24%
0.04%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $210 000 or 2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania. Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
3.42
1.05
1.05
1.05
4.76
1.05
1.1
2.63
Previous week ($/MW)
1.18
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.17
1.05
1.05
1.06
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
38
12
11
9
63
32
27
22
% Tasmania of energy market
0.31%
0.1%
0.1%
0.07%
0.52%
0.26%
0.23%
0.18%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
