A combination of warm weather and high demand in New South Wales, generator rebidding and network limitations resulted in high prices for the second consecutive week. Spot prices on both Wednesday and Thursday exceeded $5000/MWh in New South Wales, with high prices in all other mainland regions on Wednesday. Investigations into the main contributing factors which led to the prices above $5000/MWh, as required by clause 3.13.7 of the rules, are continuing.
Average prices for the week were $28/MWh in Queensland, $223/MWh in New South Wales, $62/MWh in Victoria and $35/MWh in South Australia.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $410 million—the highest weekly total for the year. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was around $470 000 or 0.1 per cent of turnover.
The average spot price in Tasmania was $61/MWh, down slightly on the previous week. The turnover for the week was $11 million. The cost of ancillary services was around $110 000 or 1 per cent of turnover.
Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in approximately a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia occurring in around two thirds of all trading intervals. Significant variations between forecast and actual prices occurred in 46, or 14 per cent, of trading intervals. Demand variations were the main contributor.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices for the week were $431/MWh in Queensland, $9167/MWh in New South Wales, $3860/MWh in Victoria, $1144/MWh in South Australia, and $76/MWh in Tasmania.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast for the week.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was around $470 000 or 0.1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.61
1.13
1.24
1.81
0.41
2.04
2.03
2.71
Previous week ($/MW)
1.41
0.7
1.14
1.13
0.26
0.31
1.74
2.29
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.62
0.91
1
1.36
0.2
0.64
2.29
1.56
Market cost($1000s)
142
61
87
39
4
28
54
59
% of energy market
1.63%
0.71%
1%
0.45%
0.04%
0.32%
0.62%
0.68%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was around $110 000 or 1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.06
Previous week ($/MW)
1.1
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.11
1.05
1.06
1.06
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
8
8
8
9
14
32
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.83%
0.83%
0.8%
0.93%
1.49%
3.33%
2.73%
0.94%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
