High demand in South Australia on Thursday and only 40MW of capacity priced between $30/MWh and $9 000/MWh saw five-minute prices exceed $9 000/MWh on four separate occasions. As a result the average price in South Australia increased to $54/MWh.
Average prices for the week fell compared to the previous week to $19/MWh in Queensland and $22/MWh in New South Wales and Victoria.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $91 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was around $1 million or one per cent of turnover.
The average spot price in Tasmania was $58/MWh, down slightly on the previous week. The turnover for the week was approximately $10 million. The cost of ancillary services was around $110 000 or one per cent of turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 51, or 15 per cent, of trading intervals, with demand forecast error the main contributor. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia occurring in around half of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices for the week were $60/MWh in Queensland, $65/MWh in New South Wales, $69/MWh in Victoria, $1 672/MWh in South Australia, and $71/MWh in Tasmania.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast for the week.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was around $1 million or one per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. An outage in Victoria on Monday increased the requirement for lower 5-minute contingency services for the remainder of the week. This outage was first notified the previous Friday. The outage is expected to continue until 28 November. The additional requirement for lower 5-minute services, increased the cost for that service from $1 000 the previous week to $422 000.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.7
0.74
1.17
1.67
0.31
2.45
7.53
2.1
Previous week ($/MW)
1.41
0.7
1.14
1.13
0.26
0.31
1.74
2.29
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.62
0.91
1
1.36
0.2
0.64
2.29
1.56
Market cost($1000s)
146
40
81
37
3
104
422
46
% of energy market
0.18%
0.05%
0.1%
0.05%
0%
0.13%
0.52%
0.06%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was around $120 000 or one per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.11
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.05
1.05
1.05
Previous week ($/MW)
1.06
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.06
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
10
10
10
9
14
31
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.1%
0.1%
0.09%
0.08%
0.13%
0.3%
0.25%
0.08%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each or the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
