Record demand in Queensland, combined with a new summer record in New South Wales resulted in significant increases in the average spot price in those regions for the week. Demand in Queensland reached almost 8200MW on Tuesday just exceeding the previous high set in February this year. Demand in Queensland remained around 8000MW for the remainder of the week. In New South Wales, the demand reached just over 12 900MW on Wednesday, the highest-ever for summer and only 200MW short of the winter record. Spot price reached around $8000/MWh in New South Wales and Queensland. As a result, prices in New South Wales and Queensland averaged $230/MWh and $188/MWh respectively for the week.
The spot prices in Victoria averaged $28/MWh, up by a third compared to the previous week. In South Australia and Tasmania prices averaged $32/MWh and $46/MWh respectively. Exports from Victoria to Snowy were significantly restricted for the peak periods each day from Monday to Thursday to manage counter price flows.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $598 million. This compares to $78 million the previous week. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was around $400 000, or 0.1 per cent of turnover. Turnover in Tasmania for the week was $8 million and the cost of ancillary services was $160 000 or 2 per cent of turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 73, or around a quarter, of all trading intervals, with demand forecast error the main contributor. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around a third of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia occurring in around two thirds of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
There were seven instances where the spot price exceeded $5 000/MWh—three each in New South Wales and Queensland and one in the Snowy region.
The maximum spot prices for the week in Queensland and New South Wales were $7,867/MWh and $8,755/MWh respectively on Wednesday afternoon. Other maximum prices were $197/MWh in Victoria and $236/MWh in South Australia at 4pm on Monday and $159/MWh in Tasmania on Friday at 7am.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast for the week.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was around $400 000 or around 0.1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market. On Wednesday and Thursday, lightning led to a reduction in flows from Queensland to New South Wales. This resulted in a requirement for lower contingency services to be sourced locally in Queensland for a total of around 10 hours. The price for lower 5 minute reached $800/MW on Wednesday, with a total cost for these local services of around $120 000 or 30 per cent of the cost for all services for the week.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.67
0.57
1.2
1.85
0.37
0.42
7.26
1.71
Previous week ($/MW)
2.13
0.71
1
1.55
0.43
2.1
3.36
1.7
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.62
0.91
1
1.36
0.2
0.64
2.29
1.56
Market cost($1000s)
82
28
80
40
3
4
118
37
% of energy market
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.02%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $160 000 or 2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
3.37
1.05
1.05
1.06
2.06
1.05
1.06
1.07
Previous week ($/MW)
1.12
1.05
1.05
1.05
24.75
1.05
1.05
1.05
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
27
11
10
9
31
34
26
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.34%
0.13%
0.13%
0.12%
0.39%
0.43%
0.32%
0.12%
Figure six shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure seven shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures eight and nine show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30 minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
