Prices for the week increased significantly in Victoria and South Australia averaging $200/MWh and $59/MWh respectively. A network outage in south western New South Wales on Thursday and Friday limited flows from Snowy into Victoria to zero at times. Notice of this outage was given two days earlier, with forecasts under-estimating the impact by more than 1000 MW. A new record demand of around 8700 MW occurred in Victoria on Friday.
Prices were consistent with the previous week in Queensland and New South Wales averaging $31/MWh and $25/MWh respectively. Prices in Tasmania averaged $32/MWh.
Turnover in the energy market for the mainland was $292 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $234 000, or 0.1 per cent of the energy market. Turnover in Tasmania for the week was $5.6 million with the cost of ancillary services totaling $56 000 or 1 per cent of turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 67, or around 20 per cent of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in approximately 20 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia occurring in around 60 per cent of all trading intervals.
The AER would welcome comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices reached $90/MWh in New South Wales and $1693/MWh in Queensland on Sunday evening. The other mainland maximum spot prices for the week were $9134/MWh in Victoria at 11am Friday and $4937/MWh at 3.30pm Thursday in South Australia. In Tasmania, the highest price for the week, of $152/MWh, was recorded at 8.00pm on Tuesday.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast for the week. Directions were issued to Directlink on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday to manage network issues associated with the Gold Coast area and northern New South Wales. Hydro Tasmania was directed on Wednesday to maintain power system security and reliability in the Tasmanian region.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $234 000 or 0.1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.82
0.56
1.49
0.73
0.19
0.22
0.84
1.5
Previous week ($/MW)
0.74
0.47
1.2
0.5
0.17
0.21
0.9
1.44
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
39
26
98
16
1
1
19
33
% of energy market
0.01%
0.01%
0.03%
0.01%
0%
0%
0.01%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was around $56 000 or 1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.54
0.25
0.25
0.26
0.32
0.25
0.25
0.25
Previous week ($/MW)
1.28
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.35
0.25
0.25
0.25
Last quarter ($/MWh)
7.89
1.05
1.05
1.58
4.43
1.06
1.06
1.97
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
25
3
3
2
5
8
6
2
% Tasmania of energy market
44.76%
5.5%
5.28%
3.8%
9.52%
14.14%
10.84%
3.73%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30 minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
