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Weekly report 26 March–1 April

Issue date

11th April 2006

(The full report is available in PDF form below)

Overview

Mild weather conditions led to average spot prices for the week of between $17/MWh in Queensland and $31/MWh in Tasmania.

At around 7pm on Saturday, the operational commissioning tests for Basslink were successfully completed and flows across the interconnector ceased.

Turnover in the energy market was $79 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week, including Tasmania, was around $260 000, or 0.3 per cent, of energy market turnover.

Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 14, or around 4 per cent of all trading intervals.  Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a fifth of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia occurring in around half of all trading intervals.

The AER welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).

Price summary

Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.

Figure 1  National demand and spot price all regions

Figure 1  Half-hour national demand and prices–26 March 2006

Figure 2  Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
17
21
22
28
31
Previous week
16
21
24
40
29
Same quarter last year
25
35
22
31
-
Financial year to date
33
48
38
46
67
% change from previous week
▲6%
▼4%
▼7%
▼30%
▲7%
% change from same quarter last year
▼33%
▼42%
▼1%
▼10%
-
% change from previous year
▲2%
▼6%
▲30%
▲13%
-

Figure 3  Volatility index during peak periods

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
0.34
0.4
0.35
0.25
0.33
Previous week
0.35
0.41
0.45
0.32
0.66
Same quarter last year
0.73
0.74
0.78
0.7
-

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Price events

Maximum spot prices across the mainland ranged from $29/MWh in Queensland to $50/MWh in South Australia. In Tasmania, the spot price reached $1832/MWh at 7.30am on Tuesday morning when the transfer capability of Basslink was rapidly reduced for a planned network outage.

There were no low reserve conditions forecast for the week.

FCAS

The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $151 000 or 0.2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market on the mainland.

Figure 4  Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.74
0.33
0.83
1.4
0.18
0.19
0.4
1.4
Previous week ($/MW)
0.58
0.37
1
0.77
0.17
0.73
1.2
1.11
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
33
13
48
31
1
1
5
20
% of energy market
0.04%
0.02%
0.07%
0.04%
0%
0%
0.01%
0.03%

The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $108 000 or 2 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.

Figure 5  Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.16
0.8
5.04
2.16
1.73
0.01
0.01
0.42
Previous week ($/MW)
1.04
0.8
5.03
2.05
77.21
0.01
0.01
0.41
Last quarter ($/MWh)
7.89
1.05
1.05
1.58
4.43
1.06
1.06
1.97
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
6
10
64
7
16
0
0
4
% Tasmania of energy market
0.11%
0.17%
1.14%
0.12%
0.28%
0%
0%
0.08%

Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.

Figure 6  Daily frequency control ancillary service prices

Figure 6  Daily frequency control service costs–26 March 2006

Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.

Figure 7  Regional participation in ancillary services

Figure 7  Regional participation in global frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 8  Prices for raise services

Figure 8  Half-hour global prices for raise frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figure 9  Prices for lower services

Figure 9  Half-hour global prices for lower frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 10  Tasmanian prices for raise services

Figure 10  Half-hour Tasmanian prices for raise frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figure 11  Tasmanian prices for lower services

Figure 11  Half-hour Tasmanian prices for lower frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 12  Raise requirements

Figure 12  5-minute global requirement for raise frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figure 13  Lower requirements

Figure 13  5-minute global requirement for lower frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 14  Tasmanian raise requirements

Figure 14  5-minute Tasmanian requirement for raise frequency control services–26 March 2006

Figure 15  Tasmanian lower requirements

Figure 15  5-minute Tasmanian requirement for lower frequency control services–26 March 2006

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Full report

Market analysis 20060326-20060401.pdf (959.8 KB)
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