Spot prices for the week averaged between $25/MWh in Queensland and $58/MWh in Tasmania, an increase of more than 40 per cent in all regions compared to the previous week Increased demand across the market, including the highest demand in New South Wales since summer, and a reduction in low priced capacity in Queensland contributed.
At 8 am on Tuesday 23 May the spot price in Tasmania reached $6509/MWh. This was followed by the loss of around 210 MW of generation, and the interruption to 240 MW of industrial load. High prices occurred in South Australia and Victoria at the same time. A separate report detailing the significant contributing factors that resulted in the spot price exceeding $5000/MWh on that day will be published in accordance with clause 3.13.7 of the Rules.
Turnover in the energy market was $136 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week, including Tasmania, was $815 000, or 0.6 per cent of energy market turnover. Two events in Tasmania contribute almost $700,000 to the cost of ancillary services for the week.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 31, or around 9 per cent of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia, occurring in two thirds of all trading intervals.
The AER welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices for the week were $267/MWh in Queensland and $274/MWh in New South Wales both occurring on Tuesday evening. The maximum spot price for the week in Tasmania of $6509/MWh occurred at 8 am on Tuesday morning. The prices in Victoria and South Australia reached $1560/MWh and $1668/MWh respectively, immediately after the high price in Tasmania.
There were no low reserve conditions forecast. Basslink was directed to flow from Victoria to Tasmania on Tuesday between 7.50 am and 9.20 am.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $155 000 or 0.1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.11
0.18
0.95
1.91
0.14
0.1
0.21
0.85
Previous week ($/MW)
0.84
0.19
0.9
0.84
0.14
1.57
6
0.51
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
42
7
54
35
0
0
3
13
% of energy market
0.03%
0.01%
0.04%
0.03%
0%
0%
0%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $659 000 or 5 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania. At times on Tuesday the requirements for raise regulation and some of the raise contingency services were not met, leading to $10 000/MW prices for those services.
On Saturday morning, a spike in the requirement for lower 6 second services in Tasmania occurred as BassLink flows changed from north to south. This increase in the requirement, from 20 MW to 95 MW, saw the price for this service increase to $10 000/MW for 3 dispatch intervals.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
8.27
2.26
21.53
2.02
41.48
0.38
1.34
0.61
Previous week ($/MW)
2.27
1.14
2.23
0.73
3.51
2.59
4.69
0.38
Last quarter ($/MWh)
7.89
1.05
1.05
1.58
4.43
1.06
1.06
1.97
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
47
18
287
11
256
9
27
4
% Tasmania of energy market
17.95%
7.01%
110.61%
4.24%
98.87%
3.55%
10.52%
1.59%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
