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Weekly report 25 June–1 July

Issue date

10th July 2006

(The full report is available in PDF form below)

Overview

Spot prices for the week averaged between $30/MWh in Queensland and $45/MWh in Tasmania.  These prices were consistent with the previous week. 

The average spot price for the financial year in Queensland was $31/MWh.  This represented an increase of 3 percent compared to the previous year. Other average prices were $43/MWh (down 5 per cent) in New South Wales,  $36/MWh (up 25 per cent) in Victoria, and $44/MWh (up 12 per cent) in South Australia.  The average spot prices in Tasmania, for the first full year of operation in the market, was $59/MWh.

Turnover in the energy market for the week was $154 million.  The total cost of ancillary services for the week, including Tasmania, was $340 000, or 0.2 per cent of energy market turnover.

Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 67, or a fifth of all trading intervals.  Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 15 per cent of all trading intervals across the market.  These variations were most frequenct in South Australia, occurring in around a quarter of all traing intervals.

The AER welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).

Price summary

Energy prices

Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.

Figure 1  National demand and spot price all regions

Figure 1  Half–hour national demand and prices–25 June 2006

Figure 2  Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
30
37
39
43
45
Previous week
28
33
38
44
50
Same quarter last year
23
28
27
36
-
Financial year to date
31
43
36
44
59
% change from previous week
▲7%
▲11%
▲3%
▼1%
▼9%
% change from same quarter last year
▲29%
▲30%
▲44%
▲21%
-
% change from previous year
▲3%
▼5%
▲25%
▲12%
-

Figure 3  Volatility index* during peak periods

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
1.34
1.07
0.78
0.62
0.83
Previous week
1.14
0.95
0.68
0.56
0.82
Same quarter last year
0.73
0.74
0.78
0.7
-

*A definition of the price volatility index is available on the AER website.
http://www.aer.gov.au/content/index.phtml/tag/MarketSnapshotLongTermAnalysis

Price events

Maximum spot prices for the week were $254/MWh in Queensland, $291/MWh in New South Wales, $243/MWh in Victoria and $250/MWh in South Australia, all occurring on Saturday evening.  The spot price reached $1447/MWh in Tasmania, late on Friday morning.

There were no low reserve conditions forecast.

FCAS

The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $175 000 or 0.1 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market.

Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.

Figure 4  Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.70
0.13
0.96
2.33
0.15
1.02
1.07
0.87
Previous week ($/MW)
0.49
0.11
0.69
0.65
0.14
0.04
0.19
0.9
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
27
4
54
51
0.4
5
19
13
% of energy market
0.02%
0.01%
0.04%
0.04%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%

The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $165 000 or 1.7 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.

Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.

Figure 5  Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
2.19
0.3
2.01
2.24
27.83
0.16
0.4
0.83
Previous week ($/MW)
19.77
0.16
0.99
23.66
18.12
0.07
0.4
0.82
Last quarter ($/MWh)
7.89
1.05
1.05
1.58
4.43
1.06
1.06
1.97
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
9
3
27
7
106
3
7
5
% Tasmania of energy market
0.09%
0.03%
0.28%
0.07%
1.08%
0.03%
0.07%
0.05%

Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.

Figure 6  Daily frequency control ancillary service prices

Figure 6  Daily frequency control service costs–25 June 2006

Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.

Figure 7  Regional participation in ancillary services

Figure 7  Regional participation in global frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 8  Prices for raise services

Figure 8  Half–hour global prices for raise frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figure 9  Prices for lower services

Figure 9  Half–hour global prices for lower frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 10  Tasmanian prices for raise services

Figure 10  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for raise frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figure 11  Tasmanian prices for lower services

Figure 11  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for lower frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 12  Raise requirements

Figure 12  5–minute global requirement for raise frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figure 13  Lower requirements

Figure 13  5–minute global requirement for lower frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 14  Tasmanian raise requirements

Figure 14  5–minute Tasmanian requirement for raise frequency control services–25 June 2006

Figure 15  Tasmanian lower requirements

Figure 15  5–minute Tasmanian requirement for lower frequency control services–25 June 2006

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