Spot prices for the week averaged between $30/MWh in Queensland and $44/MWh in South Australia. These prices represented a reduction from the previous week across all regions, consistent with mild temperatures and lower demand in New South Wales and Victoria.
Turnover in the energy market was $129 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $285 000, or 0.2 per cent of energy market turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 97, or 29 per cent of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a quarter of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia, occurring in over a half of all trading intervals.
The AER welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The maximum spot prices for the week ranged from $79/MWh in Tasmania to $1468/MWh in South Australia.
There were two periods of low reserve conditions forecast for the week in South Australia. On Sunday afternoon, NEMMCO forecast that there would be low reserves on Monday for 6 hours. A participant response within 1 hour of the notice restored the reserves. On Thursday at 11.30 am a 10 per cent increase in forecast demand for the afternoon led to forecasts of low reserves between 1.30 pm and 6 pm. There was no participant response, but the condition was resolved at 3.30 pm with a cool change leading to reduced demand.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $182 000 or 0.2 per cent of the energy market.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.35
0.13
1.23
2.61
1.25
0.42
0.89
1.05
Previous week ($/MW)
0.52
0.22
1.17
3.11
0.13
0.5
2.05
0.97
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
15
4
66
56
3
4
20
15
% of energy market
0.01%
0.01%
0.05%
0.05%
0.01%
0.01%
0.02%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $103 000 or 1.3 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
10.17
0.67
1.43
3.02
0.11
0.19
0.45
1.04
Previous week ($/MW)
4.65
0.73
1.89
3.98
19.73
0.68
12.13
0.92
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
46
10
23
14
0
1
2
7
% Tasmania of energy market
0.56%
0.12%
0.28%
0.17%
0.01%
0.01%
0.02%
0.08%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
