Spot prices for the week averaged between $39/MWh in Tasmania and $321/MWh in Victoria. High temperatures across the board saw national demand reach record levels.
On Tuesday afternoon a new record demand in Victoria of more than 9000 MW occurred, which together with demand in South Australia at near record levels saw spot prices exceed $5000/MWh in both regions. At 3.02 pm market time bushfires in the vicinity of the fully loaded Snowy to Victoria interconnector caused it to open, which led to the interruption of 2600 MW of Victorian customer load. Following the loss of the interconnector the price in South Australia rose to close to the price cap, Victoria's price fell to zero before rising to the cap and the price in Tasmania fell to $1000/MWh. Restoration of customers commenced at 3.49 pm, and all supply was restored by around 6 pm. The AER will be issuing a separate report into the events of that day.
Turnover in the energy market was $554 million, with two thirds of that accruing on Tuesday. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $20 million, with 99 per cent of that accruing on Tuesday.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 207 or two thirds of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in around a quarter all trading intervals across the market.
The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The maximum spot prices for the mainland for the week occurred on Tuesday and ranged from $736/MWh in Queensland to $10 000/MWh in Victoria. In Tasmania the maximum price of $1800/MWh occurred on Monday morning following a rapid reduction in imports from the mainland.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $18.5 million or 3.7 per cent of the energy market. Almost all of this accumulated on Tuesday as a result of the loss of the Victoria to Snowy interconnector.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
113.48
124.69
113.52
61
3.7
0.97
104.5
31.72
Previous week ($/MW)
0.61
0.25
3.31
1.96
21.33
0.39
4.12
1.22
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
4410
4143
6510
1000
8
8
2046
543
% of energy market
0.81%
0.76%
1.19%
0.18%
0.01%
0.01%
0.37%
0.1%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $1.5 million or 22 per cent of the total turnover in the energy market in Tasmania. Almost all of this cost occurred on Tuesday due to the events in Victoria.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
269.62
1.96
66.36
3.57
0.86
0.58
0.59
2.07
Previous week ($/MW)
1.42
1
1.02
1.65
3.34
2.25
0.59
1.15
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
876
21
615
36
5
7
7
8
% Tasmania of energy market
12.24%
0.29%
8.59%
0.5%
0.07%
0.1%
0.09%
0.11%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
