Spot prices on the mainland for the week averaged between $89/MWh in South Australia and $417/MWh in New South Wales. Prices in New South Wales exceeded $5000/MWh during the evening peak on five consecutive days. The high prices flowed through to Queensland and the Snowy region where prices also exceeded $5000/MWh on five consecutive days. National and regional demand was high throughout the week, consistent with winter conditions. Flooding in the Hunter Valley affecting coal supplies, and planned and unplanned generator outages restricted the availability of some generators. Bidding strategies to price capacity into higher prices during the peak period of the day, particularly by Macquarie Generation, continued. These factors combined with the ongoing impacts of the drought, in Snowy and south east Queensland in particular, to drive the increase in spot prices. The spot price in Tasmania averaged just $13/MWh as a result of negative prices that coincided with the extreme prices on the mainland.
The AER has published a separate report which provides a detailed analysis of the $5000/MWh events in June and the causes of the high prices.
Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 16 June was $1.15 billion, the highest since market start. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $657 000, or 0.06 per cent of energy market turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 246 instances or three quarters of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a fifth of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania occurring in 40 per cent of all trading intervals.
The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to Peter Adams or Mark Wilson, AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $428 000 or 0.04 per cent of turnover in the energy market.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
1.87
0.76
2.32
6.02
0.11
0.05
0.68
1.63
Previous week ($/MW)
1.37
0.68
1.74
5.09
0.15
0.09
0.42
1.45
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
83
32
147
137
0
0
5
24
% of energy market
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $229 000 or 8 per cent of the turnover in the energy market in Tasmania.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
15.93
1.78
2.12
5.96
0.21
2.48
2.07
1.82
Previous week ($/MW)
7.16
1.58
1.96
4.65
0
2.81
2.03
1.21
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
28
10
13
19
2
84
62
10
% Tasmania of energy market
0.95%
0.35%
0.44%
0.65%
0.08%
2.9%
2.15%
0.36%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
