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Weekly report 8–14 July

Issue date

20th July 2007

(The full report is available in PDF form below)

Overview

Spot prices for the week averaged between $94/MWh in Queensland and $111/MWh in Tasmania.

Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 14 July was $445 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $485 000, or 0.1 per cent of energy market turnover.

Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 126, or 38 per cent of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 13 per cent of all trading intervals across the market.  These variations were most frequent in Tasmania, occurring in almost a third of all trading intervals.

The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).

Price summary

Energy prices

Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.

Figure 1  National demand and spot price all regions

Figure 1  Half–hour national demand and prices–8 July 2007

Figure 2  Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
94
105
104
104
111
Previous week
59
69
84
95
99
Same quarter last year
26
39
39
43
43
Financial year to date
77
88
94
100
105
% change from previous week
▲57%
▲52%
▲24%
▲9%
▲12%
% change from same quarter last year
▲260%
▲171%
▲165%
▲141%
▲162%
% change from previous year
▲194%
▲112%
▲123%
▲96%
▲141%

Figure 3  Volatility index* during peak periods

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
1.06
1.34
0.86
0.88
0.55
Previous week
0.67
0.55
0.33
0.48
0.21
Same quarter last year
1.07
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.29

*A definition of the price volatility index is available on the AER website (www.aer.gov.au/content/index.phtml/tag/MarketSnapshotLongTermAnalysis).

Price events

Maximum spot prices for the week ranged from $446/MWh in Tasmania to $2075/MWh in New South Wales and all occurred on Monday evening.

Low reserves were forecast for New South Wales on Monday evening.

FCAS

The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $255 000 or 0.1 per cent of turnover in the energy market.

Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.

Figure 4  Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
0.67
0.25
1
6
0.07
0.21
0.47
1.76
Previous week ($/MW)
0.72
0.3
0.83
4.82
0.09
0.17
0.37
1.93
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
25
7
57
128
0
2
9
26
% of energy market
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.03%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%

The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $231 000 or 0.9 per cent of turnover in the Tasmanian energy market. On Tuesday raise 6 second service reached $10 000/MW at 2.50 am when the only available capacity was priced at $10 000/MW. Between 8.30 am and 9.30 am limited availability of lower 6 second services resulted in a trade off between energy and this service, and prices increased to above $300/MW.

Figure 5  Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
15.53
1.99
2.76
5.07
16.89
1.92
1.51
1.43
Previous week ($/MW)
6.54
2
2.11
3.79
4.05
1.91
1.43
1.9
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
66
28
33
25
37
21
13
8
% Tasmania of energy market
0.26%
0.11%
0.13%
0.1%
0.14%
0.08%
0.05%
0.03%

Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.

Figure 6  Daily frequency control ancillary service prices

Figure 6  Daily frequency control service costs–8 July 2007

Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.

Figure 7  Regional participation in ancillary services

Figure 7  Regional participation in global frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 8  Prices for raise services

Figure 8  Half–hour global prices for raise frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figure 9  Prices for lower services

Figure 9  Half–hour global prices for lower frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 10  Tasmanian prices for raise services

Figure 10  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for raise frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figure 11  Tasmanian prices for lower services

Figure 11  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for lower frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 12  Raise requirements

Figure 12  5–minute global requirement for raise frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figure 13  Lower requirements

Figure 13  5–minute global requirement for lower frequency control services–8 July 2007

Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 14  Tasmanian raise requirements

Figure 15  Tasmanian lower requirements

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Market analysis 20070708–20070714.pdf (1.2 MB)
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