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Weekly report 12–18 August

Issue date

24th August 2007

(The full report is available in PDF form below)

Overview

Spot prices for the week averaged between $35/MWh and $45/MWh.

Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 18 August was $160 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $964 000, or 0.6 per cent of energy market turnover.

Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 131, or 39 per cent, of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in a fifth of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia, occurring in a third of all trading intervals.

The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).

Price summary

Energy prices

Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.

Figure 1  National demand and spot price all regions

Figure 1  Half–hour national demand and prices–12 August 2007

Figure 2  Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
35
39
42
45
35
Previous week
40
42
43
40
39
Same quarter last year
26
39
39
43
42
Financial year to date
63
70
74
76
81
% change from previous week
▼12%
▼8%
▼4%
▲10%
▼10%
% change from same quarter last year
▲36%
▲1%
▲7%
▲4%
▼17%
% change from previous year
▲110%
▲53%
▲66%
▲51%
▲76%

Figure 3  Volatility index* during peak periods

QLD
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Last week
0.42
0.42
0.39
0.35
0.82
Previous week
0.75
0.68
0.61
0.56
0.96
Same quarter last year
1.07
0.96
0.96
0.94
0.29

*A definition of the price volatility index is available on the AER website (www.aer.gov.au/content/index.phtml/tag/MarketSnapshotLongTermAnalysis).

Price events

Maximum spot prices for the week ranged from $65/MWh in Queensland to $86/MWh in South Australia.

There were no low reserves forecast.

On Sunday NEMMCO directed a participant in South Australia from 9.10 am to 10.25 am to maintain the power system in a secure operating state.

FCAS

The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $749 000 or 0.5 per cent of turnover in the energy market. As a result of high output from Kogan Creek at times  the requirement for and cost of mainland raise contingency services were higher than usual. Raise 6 second services accounted for around 40 per cent of the total cost.

Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.

Figure 4  Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
6.05
1.68
2.6
7.45
0.04
0.04
0.19
2.35
Previous week ($/MW)
4.66
1.1
1.91
5.06
0.05
0.04
0.2
1.96
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
291
77
172
166
0
0
3
39
% of energy market
0.19%
0.05%
0.11%
0.11%
0.01%
0.01%
0.01%
0.03%

The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $215 000 or 2.8 per cent of the turnover in the Tasmanian energy market.

Figure 5  Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices

Raise
Lower
 
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
6
sec
60
sec
5
min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
6.59
2.58
2.68
3.73
0.78
1.98
1.95
1.6
Previous week ($/MW)
22.36
1.61
4.53
8
4.68
1.94
1.72
1.86
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
30
34
26
26
5
48
37
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.4%
0.44%
0.34%
0.34%
0.06%
0.62%
0.49%
0.12%

Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.

Figure 6  Daily frequency control ancillary service prices

Figure 6  Daily frequency control service costs–12 August 2007

Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.

Figure 7  Regional participation in ancillary services

Figure 7  Regional participation in global frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 8  Prices for raise services

Figure 8  Half–hour global prices for raise frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figure 9  Prices for lower services

Figure 9  Half–hour global prices for lower frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.

Figure 10  Tasmanian prices for raise services

Figure 10  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for raise frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figure 11  Tasmanian prices for lower services

Figure 11  Half–hour Tasmanian prices for lower frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 12  Raise requirements

Figure 12  5–minute global requirement for raise frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figure 13  Lower requirements

Figure 13  5–minute global requirement for lower frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.

Figure 14  Tasmanian raise requirements

Figure 14  5–minute Tasmanian requirement for raise frequency control services–12 August 2007

Figure 15  Tasmanian lower requirements

Figure 15  5–minute Tasmanian requirement for lower frequency control services–12 August 2007

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