Spot prices for the week averaged $122/MWh in Queensland. High energy prices occurred on three days as lightning impacted on the dispatch of generation in southern Queensland and flows across the Queensland to New South Wales interconnector. Prices elsewhere in the market averaged around $35/MWh.
Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 13 October was $223 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $8 million or 3.6 per cent of energy market turnover. Of this cost, 87 per cent resulted from a requirement to source those services locally in Queensland.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 146, or 43 per cent, of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 15 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania, occurring in over a third of trading intervals.
The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices for the week ranged from $58/MWh in South Australia to $3440/MWh in Queensland.
Low reserves were forecast in Queensland on Tuesday afternoon. These conditions were removed ahead of time following the earlier than expected return of equipment that was subject to a network outage in northern New South Wales.
NEMMCO directed three participants on Wednesday to maintain power system security as lightning impacted on the secure dispatch of the market. Top
FCAS
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $7.7 million or 3.6 per cent of turnover in the energy market. On Wednesday, lightning led to an increased risk in the loss of multiple lines in Queensland. NEMMCO invoked constraints to manage these conditions which forced flows south into New South Wales and increased the requirements for locally sourced lower contingency FCAS in Queensland. Local requirements peaked at 771 MW for lower 6 second and lower 60 second and 737 MW for lower 5 minute services. Prices for these services increased to $10 000/MW for around one hour. These requirements were not satisfied for some services between 4.50 pm and 5.20 pm, with further shortfalls occurring for the lower 6 second services until 5.35 pm. The cost of these services was $6.7 million during this period.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
5.71
6.96
4.85
4.11
452.6
551.65
125.53
1.72
Previous week ($/MW)
5.59
1.68
4.48
5.63
0.08
0.12
0.51
2.37
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
282
317
307
96
2040
2254
2405
27
% of energy market
0.13%
0.15%
0.14%
0.04%
0.94%
1.04%
1.11%
0.01%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $184 000 or 2.8 per cent of the turnover in the Tasmanian energy market.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
4.2
1.66
3.39
4.95
5.04
0.77
1.18
1.42
Previous week ($/MW)
7.51
1.21
3.33
7.18
22.48
1.58
2.69
3.05
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
23
21
40
26
30
16
19
9
% Tasmania of energy market
0.35%
0.31%
0.6%
0.38%
0.45%
0.23%
0.29%
0.13%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
