Spot prices for the week averaged around $33/MWh in all regions except Queensland where the price average $61/MWh.
Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 3 November was $159 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $2.3 million or 1.5 per cent of energy market turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 127, or 38 per cent, of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 17 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in Tasmania, occurring in over a third of trading intervals.
The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
Maximum spot prices for the week were around $61/MWh in all regions except Queensland where the maximum price was $3374/MWh.
No low reserve conditions were forecast.
On Monday, 29 October, NEMMCO issued a direction to a Queensland participant to maintain power system security. The direction was issued at 5.50 am and cancelled at 6.35 am.
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $2 million or 1.3 per cent of turnover in the energy market. On Monday just after midnight the loss of the Armidale to Dumaresq and Dumaresq to Bulli Creek lines were reclassified as credible as a result of lightning in the vicinity. At 5.20 am the loss of the Braemar to Tarong lines were also reclassified as credible. These reclassifications saw a 280 MW change in southerly flows at 5.20 am across QNI and resulted in the need for local lower services in Queensland. However, there was insufficient availability of those services at times during the period until the reclassification of Braemar to Tarong was cancelled at 6.35 am. The price of lower 6 second services reached $9998/MW while the price of lower five minutes services reached $4700/MW at a total cost of around $1 million.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
4.57
1.01
3.28
2.76
215.68
1.05
20.08
2
Previous week ($/MW)
13.89
2.12
5.37
5.75
0.05
0.05
0.44
2.27
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
242
41
213
64
1084
7
345
39
% of energy market
0.16%
0.03%
0.14%
0.04%
0.71%
0.01%
0.23%
0.03%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $310 000 or 5 per cent of the turnover in the Tasmanian energy market.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
31.95
0.96
5.52
6.43
0.79
1.92
5.76
2.63
Previous week ($/MW)
18.7
1.69
4.8
7.18
1.2
1.93
5.44
2.9
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
113
16
69
23
2
21
63
3
% Tasmania of energy market
1.84%
0.26%
1.12%
0.38%
0.03%
0.34%
1.02%
0.04%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
