Spot prices for the week averaged around $35/MWh in Queensland and New South Wales and $47/MWh in Tasmania.
Early Tuesday morning the Yallourn open cut coal mine in the Latrobe Valley collapsed, leading to a reduction in output from the power station by around 800 MW for the remainder of the week. This reduction in capacity combined with near record demand in South Australia later in the week led to average prices of around $63/MWh there and in Victoria. This represents a doubling of prices compared to the previous week.
Turnover in the energy market in the week ended 17 November was $179 million. The total cost of ancillary services for the week was $2 million or 1 per cent of energy market turnover.
Significant variations between actual prices and those forecast 4 and 12 hours ahead occurred in 53, or 16 per cent of all trading intervals. Demand forecasts produced 4 and 12 hours ahead varied from actual by more than 5 per cent in 17 per cent of all trading intervals across the market. These variations were most frequent in South Australia, occurring in over a third of all trading intervals.
The Australian Energy Regulator welcomes comments on the information contained in, or the layout of, the report. Comments should be sent to AER, GPO Box 922, Adelaide SA 5000 (email AERInquiry@aer.gov.au; fax (08) 8213 3414).
Figure 1 sets out national demand and spot prices in each region for each trading interval. Figure 2 compares the volume weighted average price with the averages for the previous week and the same quarter last year. Figure 3 compares the weekly price volatility index on the same basis.
Figure 1 National demand and spot price all regions
Figure 2 Volume weighted average spot price for energy market ($/MWh)
The total cost of ancillary services on the mainland for the week was $1.5 million or 1 per cent of turnover in the energy market. A planned reduction in International Power’s Loy Yang B unit 3 at 3.05 am on Sunday saw a step change in the bid profile for energy and ancillary services. Loy Yang B unit 3 was being dispatched at 50 MW at the time, out of a total dispatch of 500 MW. This step change led to a short term price spike in the raise 6 second market. The price increased to $4000/MW for the 3.05 am five-minute interval. An immediate rebid by International Power returned the availability of the service.
Figure 4 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across the interconnected regions.
Figure 4 Volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices (excluding Tasmania)
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
13.13
2.36
7.26
3.03
0.23
0.59
1.39
1.99
Previous week ($/MW)
4.6
1.08
3.55
2.17
0.54
0.27
0.54
1.72
Last quarter ($/MW)
1.76
0.73
1.15
1.54
0.39
2.28
5
1.93
Market cost($1000s)
755
115
502
73
1
7
32
34
% of energy market
0.44%
0.07%
0.29%
0.04%
0.01%
0.01%
0.02%
0.02%
The total cost of ancillary services in Tasmania for the week was $506 000 or 5.8 per cent of the turnover in the Tasmanian energy market. At 8.10 am Saturday morning the requirement for ancillary services increased in Tasmania as Basslink changed direction and entered the no-go zone. The price of raise 6 second service increased to more than $2000/MW for 20 minutes.
Figure 5 summarises the volume weighted average prices and costs for the eight frequency control ancillary services across Tasmania.
Figure 5 Tasmanian volume weighted average frequency control ancillary service prices
Raise
Lower
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
6 sec
60 sec
5 min
Reg
Last week($/MW)
18.65
1.43
3.14
6.15
0.5
10.34
0.99
2.89
Previous week ($/MW)
5.48
0.9
4.06
2.61
0.51
1.47
1.13
1.72
Last quarter ($/MWh)
4.97
0.49
2.93
3
12.67
0.43
0.82
0.45
Tasmania Market cost($1000s)
177
33
56
34
3
171
15
16
% Tasmania of energy market
2.03%
0.38%
0.64%
0.39%
0.03%
1.96%
0.17%
0.19%
Figure 6 shows the daily breakdown of price for each frequency control ancillary service. It also includes the cost of services sourced locally and in Tasmania.
Figure 6 Daily frequency control ancillary service prices
Figure 7 shows the weekly participation in each of the ancillary service markets on a regional basis.
Figure 7 Regional participation in ancillary services
Figures 8 and 9 show 30-minute prices for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 8 Prices for raise services
Figure 9 Prices for lower services
Figures 10 and 11 show the 30-minute Tasmanian price for each of the ancillary services.
Figure 10 Tasmanian prices for raise services
Figure 11 Tasmanian prices for lower services
Figures 12 and 13 present both the raise and lower requirements for each service over the week.
Figure 12 Raise requirements
Figure 13 Lower requirements
Figures 14 and 15 present both the raise and lower Tasmanian requirements for each service over the week.
