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Long-term analysis

Demand

Energy and peak demand information in the National Electricity Market is presented below. Figures include Tasmania from 29 May 2005. Figure 1 highlights the annual national energy along with national summer and winter peak demands. Figure 2 shows the relationship between the regional peak demands and the coincident national peak for summer and winter.

Figure 1 National energy

Figure 1 - National energy - 20110517

Figure 2 Regional demand

Figure 2 - Regional demand - 20110517

Figures 3 and 4 compare the average maximum temperatures for the summer (December to March) and winter (May to August) respectively, with the long-term averages for the same periods. Together with figures 1 and 2, these graphs highlight the effect of temperature on peak demand and energy. The trends in energy and seasonal peak demand are also tabulated. Tasmania is included from 29 May 2005.

Figure 3 Summer temperatures

Figure 3 - Summer temperatures - 20110517

Figure 4 Winter temperatures

Figure 4 - Winter temperatures - 20111021

Figure 5 shows the total annual energy consumption in each region and the national total for the financial year.

Figure 5 Annual energy (TWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

2010–11

51.4 77.6 - 50.8 13.5 10.1 204.0

2009–10

53.2 78.1 - 51.2 13.3 10.0 206.0

2008–09

52.6 79.5 - 52.0 13.4 10.1 207.9

2007–08

51.5 78.8 1.6 52.3 13.3 10.3 208.0

2006–07

51.4 78.5 1.2 51.5 13.3 10.2 206.3

2005–06

51.3 77.3 0.5 50.8 12.9 10.0 202.8

2004–05

50.3 74.8 0.6 49.8 12.9 1.0" 189.7

2003–04

48.9 74.0 0.7 49.4 13.0
185.3

2002–03

46.3 71.6 0.2 48.2 13.0
179.3

2001–02

45.2 70.2 0.3 46.8 12.5
175.0

2000–01

43.0 69.4 0.3 46.9 13.0
172.5

1999–00

41.0 67.6 0.2 45.8 12.4
167.1

1998–99*

21.7 36.1 0.1 21.8 6.7
86.4

^ represents pump load
* 6 months
" Tas entered the market on 29 May 2005

Figure 6 shows the peak demand for summer and winter and the date on which it occurred.

Figure 6 Seasonal peak demand (MW)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

Winter 2011

7636
09/06/11
12 881
19/07/11
- 7929
07/06/11
2364
15/06/11
1701
25/07/11
31 335
19/07/11

Summer 2010-11

8809
21/02/11
14 589
01/02/11
- 9585
01/02/10
3378
31/01/11
1484
12/04/11
34 933
02/02/11

Winter 2010

7338
29/06/10
13 198
29/06/10
- 8013
20/07/10
2505
01/07/10
1690
16/07/10
32 274
29/06/10

Summer 2009-10

8902
18/01/10
13 769
22/01/10
- 9879
11/01/10
3110
09/02/10
1390
30/11/09
33 758
11/01/10

Winter 2009

7687
11/06/09
12 981
10/06/09
- 8130
10/06/09
2358
06/07/09
1677
09/07/09
32 094
11/06/09

Summer 2008-09

8699
09/02/09
14 097
06/02/09
- 10 445
29/01/09
3318
28/01/09
1479
09/11/08
35 551
29/01/09

Winter 2008

8204
28/07/08
14 287
28/07/08
706
12/05/08
8037
28/07/08
2439
28/07/08
1743
11/08/08
34 422
28/07/08

Summer 2007–08

8083
22/02/08
12 944
30/01/08
708
26/01/08
9776
17/03/08
3077
17/03/08
1526
01/04/08
31 990
14/01/08

Winter 2007

7838
20/06/07
13 894
17/07/07
704
11/07/07
8307
17/07/07
2383
25/06/07
1749
18/06/07
33 145
13/08/07

Summer 2006–07

8594
12/03/07
12 868
30/01/07
701
18/02/07
9012
16/01/07
2860
16/02/07
1473
16/11/06
31 796
5/02/07

Winter 2006

7615
20/06/06
13 078
20/07/06
249
18/06/06
7846
05/06/06
2364
14/06/06
1697
07/08/06
31 674
05/06/06

Summer 2005–06

8271
14/02/06
13 297
2/02/06
474
27/01/06
8714
24/02/06
2872
20/01/06
1305
20/03/06
31 104
23/01/06

Summer 2005–06
(excluding Tas.)

8271
14/02/06
13 297
2/02/06
474
27/01/06
8714
24/02/06
2872
20/01/06

29 963
23/01/06

Winter 2005

7 350
12/08/05
13 123
23/06/05
193
19/07/05
7759
10/08/05
2263
12/07/05
1718
27/06/05
31 244
23/06/05

Winter 2005
(excluding Tas.)

7350
12/08/05
13 123
23/06/05
193
19/07/05
7759
10/08/05
2263
12/07/05

29 742
23/06/05

Summer 2004-05

8189
08/02/05
12 854
30/11/04
690
24/12/04
8492
25/01/05
2625
11/01/05
1352
2/12/04
**
28 803
23/02/05

Winter 2004

7106
21/06/04
13 041
19/07/04
680
6/06/04
7437
28/07/04
2207
3/08/04
1728
19/07/04
**
29 242
19/07/04

Summer 2003-04

7918
23/02/04
12 216
9/03/04
680
16/02/04
8583
17/12/03
2602
16/12/03
1341
**
29 791
20/02/04

Winter 2003*

6778
31/07/03
12 468
28/07/03
212
25/06/03
7499
30/07/03
2158
23/06/03
1684
**
28 358
30/07/03

Summer 2002-03

7105
31/01/03
12 332
30/01/03
343
10/11/03
8041
24/02/03
2787
4/02/03

28 556
29/01/03

Winter 2002

6345
2/07/02
12 074
18/06/02
258
23/06/02
7300
27/06/02
2129
27/06/02

27 230
2/07/02

Summer 2001-02

7045
11/02/02
10 982
21/01/02
148
5/03/02
7581
14/02/02
2500
19/02/02

26 303
18/03/02

Winter 2001

6397
9/07/01
11 713
9/07/01
194
5/06/01
7137
14/06/01
2095
24/07/01

26 569
9/07/01

Summer 2000-01

6584
29/01/01
11 547
24/01/01
238
15/02/01
8019
8/02/01
2833
7/02/01

27 502
25/01/01

Winter 2000

6343
6/06/00
11 822
30/05/00
134
25/05/00
7113
29/05/00
2142
28/06/00

26 977
5/06/00

Summer 1999-00

6340
21/01/00
10 662
9/02/00
130
23/12/99
7717
2/03/00
2646
2/02/00

25 301
2/03/00

Winter 2000

5879
28/06/99
11 424
15/06/99
737
18/06/99
6745
15/06/99
1921
2/08/99

25 713
15/06/99

Summer 1998-99

5994
18/02/99
10 275
15/02/99
129
22/12/98
6670
4/02/99
2427
4/02/99

23 836
3/02/99

^ represents pump load
* demand value changed from TOTAL DEMAND to INITIAL SUPPLY
** Tasmania demand not included in the national demand

Figure 7 shows the peak demand for summer and winter including the effects of significant intermittent generation (such as wind farms) and the date on which it occurred. When the date is different to that in figure 6, the record is in bold. Intermittent generation is shown in italics.

Figure 7 Maximum demand including intermittent generation (MW)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

National

Winter 2010

7421
83
29/07/10
13 324
126
29/06/10
- 8127
114
28/06/10
2516
11
25/08/10
1792
102
16/08/10
32 860
586
29/06/10

Summer 2009-10

8933
31
18/01/10
13 913
144
22/01/10
- 10 088
209
11/01/10
3302
192
11/01/10
1461
71
30/11/09
34 397
639
11/01/10

Winter 2009

7707
20
16/07/09
13 003
22
10/06/09
- 8188
58
10/06/09
2441
83
23/06/09
1763
86
09/07/09
32 354
260
11/06/09

Summer 2008-09

8697
-2
09/02/09
14 097
3
06/02/09
- 10 490
45
29/01/09
3391
73

29/01/09
1511
32
05/11/08
35 833
282
29/01/09

Winter 2008

8203
-1
28/07/08
14 292
5
28/07/08
706
0
12/05/08
8089
52
28/07/08
2534
193
29/07/08
1884
204
21/07/08
34 594
171
28/07/08

Summer 2007-08

8115
32
22/02/08
12 944
0
30/01/08
707
0
26/01/08
9830
54
17/03/08
3155
78
17/03/08
1513
96
31/03/08
32 307
326
14/03/08

Winter 2007

7838
0
20/06/07
13 894
0
17/07/07
704
0
11/07/07
8369
62
17/07/07
2460
137
19/06/07
1827
79
18/06/07
33 470
336
17/07/07

Summer 2006-07

8625
31
12/03/07
12 868
0
30/01/07
701
0
18/02/07
9080
68
16/01/07
2958
145
16/01/07
1556
100
16/11/06
32 239
442
5/02/07

Winter 2006

7614
-1
20/06/06
13 078
0
20/07/06
249
0
18/06/06
7880
35
5/06/06
2379
16
14/06/06
1747
96
30/05/06
31 789
115
5/06/06

Summer 2005-06

8271
0
14/02/06
13 297
0
2/02/06
474
0
27/01/06
8742
28
24/02/06
2921
49
20/01/06
1348
43
20/03/06
31 271
167
23/01/06

Spot prices

Figures 8 and 9 show the quarterly volume weighted average spot prices since market start, including Tasmania from 29 May 2005. Figure 10 shows the annual volume weighted average on the same basis.

Figure 8 Regional quarterly volume weighted average spot prices since market start

Figure 8 - Regional quarterly volume weighted average spot prices - 20111021

Figure 9 Quarterly volume weighted average prices since market start ($/MWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

Sep 2011

29 30 - 30 37 30

Jun 2011

26 28 - 30 32 32

Mar 2011

65 90 - 41 83 27

Dec 2010

21 23 - 19 23 21

Sep 2010

22 30 - 26 29 41

Jun 2010

22 30 - 49 34 40

Mar 2010

46 52 - 67 134 27

Dec 2009

53 100 - 29 134 31

Sep 2009

26 28 - 25 27 24

Jun 2009

32 35 - 34 35 106

Mar 2009

37 43 - 87 161 55

Dec 2008

39 51 - 34 32 44

Sep 2008

36 41 - 42 42 44

Jun 2008

38 42 30 47 46 61

Mar 2008

80 34 27 50 243 54

Dec 2007

56 41 30 44 46 44

Sep 2007

56 59 39 60 62 65

Jun 2007

119 146 65 99 83 74

Mar 2007

60 57 29 75 69 50

Dec 2006

23 27 22 29 40 37

Sep 2006

26 39 35 39 43 42

Jun 2006

25 28 27 30 38 38

Mar 2006

39 46 34 53 58 33

Dec 2005

39 73 28 32 47 63

Sep 2005

22 29 25 30 34 100

Jun 2005

23 28 23 27 36

Mar 2005

25 35 21 22 31

Dec 2004

48 90 33 38 54

Sep 2004

27 31 22 28 36

Jun 2004

29 33 24 31 34

Mar 2004

45 60 21 30 64

Dec 2003

20 21 20 24 33

Sep 2003

28 33 27 23 26

Jun 2003

25 33 27 28 28

Mar 2003

23 33 20 24 30

Dec 2002

64 39 26 28 32

Sep 2002

54 43 30 38 40

Jun 2002

58 66 43 49 50

Mar 2002

35 28 23 27 29

Dec 2001

31 28 22 28 27

Sep 2001

27 30 25 28 28

Jun 2001

34 34 30 32 36

Mar 2001

56 52 31 72 110

Dec 2000

44 27 26 37 56

Sep 2000

44 49 49 54 60

Jun 2000

59 41 37 40 54

Mar 2000

77 35 22 29 90

Dec 1999

28 19 16 18 78

Sep 1999

32 26 21 23 78

Jun 1999

31 29 21 29 50

Mar 1999

94 21 17 25 60

Figure 10 Annual volume weighted average prices ($/MWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

2011-12 YTD

29 30 - 29 38 30

2010-11

34 43 - 29 42 31

2009-10

37 52 - 42 82 30

2008-09

36 43 - 49 69 62

2007-08

58 44 31 51 101 57

2006-07

57 67 38 61 59 51

2005–06

31 43 29 36 44 59

2004–05

31 46 26 29 39

2003–04

31 37 22 27 39

2002–03

41 37 27 30 33

2001–02

38 38 27 33 34

2000–01

45 41 35 49 67

1999–2000

49 30 24 28 69

1998–99*

60 25 19 27 54

* 6 months

Contract prices

Figure 11 shows the forward trend in d-CyphaTrade's quarterly base contract prices in the short and medium terms.

Figure 11 d-CyphaTrade regional quarterly base futures prices

Figure 11 - current d-Cypha trade futures contract prices - 20111021

Top

Wholesale electricity price index (WEPI)

d-cyphaTrade working in collaboration with the Federal Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources developed a wholesale electricity price index (WEPI) for the Australian electricity market in November 2002. The WEPI is intended to be a simple, easily reportable index that reflects daily changes to contract and spot market conditions and their effect on the stability of the underlying wholesale price for electricity in the market.

The index, which was launched on 13 November 2002, is intended to provide a proxy for the underlying wholesale market trends on a daily basis. It reflects changes in exchange traded contract and spot prices, load conditions and the proportion of total load contracted at any one time. The index is calculated for each region separately. As yet, no index exists for Tasmania. Figure 12 tracks the WEPI since 2004.

Figure 12 d-CyphaTrade wholesale electricity price index

Figure 12 - d-CyphaTrade wholesale electricity price index since inception - 20111021

Top

Frequency control ancillary service prices (FCAS)

Figure 13 shows weekly ancillary services costs in the energy market since 2004. Tasmanian costs are included from 29 May 2005.

Figure 13 Weekly ancillary services costs

Figure 13 - Weekly cost of frequency control services - 20111021

Top

Settlement Residue Auction

Figure 14 shows the inter-regional settlement residue auction proceeds and distributed settlement residues resulting from inter-regional trade.

Figure 14 Settlement residue auction proceeds and residues distributed

Figure 14 - Settlement residue auction proceeds and residues distributed - 20111021

Figure 15 shows the annual energy imported into each region since 1999–2000, together with the resulting settlement residues.

Figure 15 Annual regional energy imports and settlement residues

Figure 15 - Annual regional energy imports and settlement residues - 20110517

Top

Volatility

Figure 16 shows the quarterly trend in the volatility index across all regions during peak periods since market start. It highlights the convergence of price levels and characteristics, especially since early 2001. Tasmania is included from September 2005.

Figure 16 Regional peak price volatility index

Figure 16 - Regional peak price volatility index - 20111021

See also the analysis of market price volatility attached below.

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