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Long-term analysis

Demand

Energy and peak demand information in the National Electricity Market is presented below. Figures include Tasmania from 29 May 2005. Figure 1 highlights the annual national energy along with national summer and winter peak demands. Figure 2 shows the relationship between the regional peak demands and the coincident national peak for summer and winter.

Figure 1 National energy

Figure 1–Annual national energy traded through market with peak seasonal demand overlaid

Figure 2 Regional demand

Figure 2–Regional demand–22 July 2008

Figures 3 and 4 compare the average maximum temperatures for the summer (December to March) and winter (May to August) respectively, with the long-term averages for the same periods. Together with figures 1 and 2, these graphs highlight the effect of temperature on peak demand and energy. The trends in energy and seasonal peak demand are also tabulated. Tasmania is included from 29 May 2005.

Figure 3 Summer temperatures

Figure 3–Summer temperatures–22 July 2008

Figure 4 Winter temperatures

Figure 4–Winter temperatures–20080808

Figure 5 shows the total annual energy consumption in each region and the national total for the financial year.

Figure 5 Annual energy (TWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

2007–08

51.5 78.8 1.6 52.3 13.3 10.3 208

2006–07

51.4 78.5 1.2 51.5 13.3 10.2 206.3

2005–06

51.3 77.3 0.5 50.8 12.9 10.0 202.8

2004–05

50.3 74.8 0.6 49.8 12.9 1.0" 189.7

2003–04

48.9 74.0 0.7 49.4 13.0
185.3

2002–03

46.3 71.6 0.2 48.2 13.0
179.3

2001–02

45.2 70.2 0.3 46.8 12.5
175.0

2000–01

43.0 69.4 0.3 46.9 13.0
172.5

1999–00

41.0 67.6 0.2 45.8 12.4
167.1

1998–99*

21.7 36.1 0.1 21.8 6.7
86.4

^ represents pump load
* 6 months
" Tas entered the market on 29 May 2005

Figure 6 shows the peak demand for summer and winter and the date on which it occurred.

Figure 6 Seasonal peak demand (MW)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY^

VIC

SA

TAS

National

Summer 2008-09

7832
07/11/08
10 272
06/11/08
- 7408
11/11/08
2182
11/11/08
1479
09/11/08
27 483
11/11/08

Winter 2008

8204
28/07/08
14 287
28/07/08
706
12/05/08
8037
28/07/08
2439
28/07/08
1743
11/08/08
34 422
28/07/08

Summer 2007–08

8083
22/02/08
12 944
30/01/08
708
26/01/08
9776
17/03/08
3077
17/03/08
1526
01/04/08
31 990
14/01/08

Winter 2007

7838
20/06/07
13 894
17/07/07
704
11/07/07
8307
17/07/07
2383
25/06/07
1749
18/06/07
33 145
13/08/07

Summer 2006–07

8594
12/03/07
12 868
30/01/07
701
18/02/07
9012
16/01/07
2860
16/02/07
1473
16/11/06
31 796
5/02/07

Winter 2006

7615
20/06/06
13 078
20/07/06
249
18/06/06
7846
05/06/06
2364
14/06/06
1697
07/08/06
31 674
05/06/06

Summer 2005–06

8271
14/02/06
13 297
2/02/06
474
27/01/06
8714
24/02/06
2872
20/01/06
1305
20/03/06
31 104
23/01/06

Summer 2005–06
(excluding Tas.)

8271
14/02/06
13 297
2/02/06
474
27/01/06
8714
24/02/06
2872
20/01/06

29 963
23/01/06

Winter 2005

7 350
12/08/05
13 123
23/06/05
193
19/07/05
7759
10/08/05
2263
12/07/05
1718
27/06/05
31 244
23/06/05

Winter 2005
(excluding Tas.)

7350
12/08/05
13 123
23/06/05
193
19/07/05
7759
10/08/05
2263
12/07/05

29 742
23/06/05

Summer 2004-05

8189
08/02/05
12 854
30/11/04
690
24/12/04
8492
25/01/05
2625
11/01/05
1352
2/12/04
**
28 803
23/02/05

Winter 2004

7106
21/06/04
13 041
19/07/04
680
6/06/04
7437
28/07/04
2207
3/08/04
1728
19/07/04
**
29 242
19/07/04

Summer 2003-04

7918
23/02/04
12 216
9/03/04
680
16/02/04
8583
17/12/03
2602
16/12/03
1341
**
29 791
20/02/04

Winter 2003*

6778
31/07/03
12 468
28/07/03
212
25/06/03
7499
30/07/03
2158
23/06/03
1684
**
28 358
30/07/03

Summer 2002-03

7105
31/01/03
12 332
30/01/03
343
10/11/03
8041
24/02/03
2787
4/02/03

28 556
29/01/03

Winter 2002

6345
2/07/02
12 074
18/06/02
258
23/06/02
7300
27/06/02
2129
27/06/02

27 230
2/07/02

Summer 2001-02

7045
11/02/02
10 982
21/01/02
148
5/03/02
7581
14/02/02
2500
19/02/02

26 303
18/03/02

Winter 2001

6397
9/07/01
11 713
9/07/01
194
5/06/01
7137
14/06/01
2095
24/07/01

26 569
9/07/01

Summer 2000-01

6584
29/01/01
11 547
24/01/01
238
15/02/01
8019
8/02/01
2833
7/02/01

27 502
25/01/01

Winter 2000

6343
6/06/00
11 822
30/05/00
134
25/05/00
7113
29/05/00
2142
28/06/00

26 977
5/06/00

Summer 1999-00

6340
21/01/00
10 662
9/02/00
130
23/12/99
7717
2/03/00
2646
2/02/00

25 301
2/03/00

Winter 2000

5879
28/06/99
11 424
15/06/99
737
18/06/99
6745
15/06/99
1921
2/08/99

25 713
15/06/99

Summer 1998-99

5994
18/02/99
10 275
15/02/99
129
22/12/98
6670
4/02/99
2427
4/02/99

23 836
3/02/99

^ represents pump load
* demand value changed from TOTAL DEMAND to INITIAL SUPPLY
** Tasmania demand not included in the national demand

Figure 7 shows the peak demand for summer and winter including the effects of significant intermittent generation (such as wind farms) and the date on which it occurred. When the date is different to that in figure 6, the record is in bold. Intermittent generation is shown in italics.

Figure 7 Maximum demand including intermittent generation (MW)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

National

Winter 2008

8203
-1
28/07/08
14 292
5
28/07/08
706
0
12/05/08
8089
52
28/07/08
2534
193
29/07/08
1884
204
21/07/08
34 594
171
28/07/08

Summer 2007-08

8115
32
22/02/08
12 944
0
30/01/08
707
0
26/01/08
9830
54
17/03/08
3155
78
17/03/08
1513
96
31/03/08
32 307
326
14/03/08

Winter 2007

7838
0
20/06/07
13 894
0
17/07/07
704
0
11/07/07
8369
62
17/07/07
2460
137
19/06/07
1827
79
18/06/07
33 470
336
17/07/07

Summer 2006-07

8625
31
12/03/07
12 868
0
30/01/07
701
0
18/02/07
9080
68
16/01/07
2958
145
16/01/07
1556
100
16/11/06
32 239
442
5/02/07

Winter 2006

7614
-1
20/06/06
13 078
0
20/07/06
249
0
18/06/06
7880
35
5/06/06
2379
16
14/06/06
1747
96
30/05/06
31 789
115
5/06/06

Summer 2005-06

8271
0
14/02/06
13 297
0
2/02/06
474
0
27/01/06
8742
28
24/02/06
2921
49
20/01/06
1348
43
20/03/06
31 271
167
23/01/06

Top

Spot prices

Figures 8 and 9 show the quarterly volume weighted average spot prices since market start, including Tasmania from 29 May 2005. Figure 10 shows the annual volume weighted average on the same basis.

Figure 8 Regional quarterly volume weighted average spot prices since market start

Figure 8–Regional quarterly volume weighted average spot prices–20081002

Figure 9 Quarterly volume weighted average prices since market start ($/MWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

Sep 2008

36 41 - 42 42 44

Jun 2008

38 42 30 47 46 61

Mar 2008

80 34 27 50 243 54

Dec 2007

56 41 30 44 46 44

Sep 2007

56 59 39 60 62 65

Jun 2007

119 146 65 99 83 74

Mar 2007

60 57 29 75 69 50

Dec 2006

23 27 22 29 40 37

Sep 2006

26 39 35 39 43 42

Jun 2006

25 28 27 30 38 38

Mar 2006

39 46 34 53 58 33

Dec 2005

39 73 28 32 47 63

Sep 2005

22 29 25 30 34 100

Jun 2005

23 28 23 27 36

Mar 2005

25 35 21 22 31

Dec 2004

48 90 33 38 54

Sep 2004

27 31 22 28 36

Jun 2004

29 33 24 31 34

Mar 2004

45 60 21 30 64

Dec 2003

20 21 20 24 33

Sep 2003

28 33 27 23 26

Jun 2003

25 33 27 28 28

Mar 2003

23 33 20 24 30

Dec 2002

64 39 26 28 32

Sep 2002

54 43 30 38 40

Jun 2002

58 66 43 49 50

Mar 2002

35 28 23 27 29

Dec 2001

31 28 22 28 27

Sep 2001

27 30 25 28 28

Jun 2001

34 34 30 32 36

Mar 2001

56 52 31 72 110

Dec 2000

44 27 26 37 56

Sep 2000

44 49 49 54 60

Jun 2000

59 41 37 40 54

Mar 2000

77 35 22 29 90

Dec 1999

28 19 16 18 78

Sep 1999

32 26 21 23 78

Jun 1999

31 29 21 29 50

Mar 1999

94 21 17 25 60

Figure 10 Annual volume weighted average prices ($/MWh)


QLD

NSW

SNOWY

VIC

SA

TAS

2008-09 YTD

38 53 - 42 41 46

2007-08

58 44 31 51 101 57

2006-07

57 67 38 61 59 51

2005–06

31 43 29 36 44 59

2004–05

31 46 26 29 39

2003–04

31 37 22 27 39

2002–03

41 37 27 30 33

2001–02

38 38 27 33 34

2000–01

45 41 35 49 67

1999–2000

49 30 24 28 69

1998–99*

60 25 19 27 54

* 6 months

Contract prices

Figure 11 shows the forward trend in d-CyphaTrade's quarterly base contract prices in the short and medium terms.

Figure 11 d-CyphaTrade regional quarterly base futures prices

Figure 11–current d-Cypha trade futures contract prices–20081023

Top

Wholesale electricity price index (WEPI)

d-cyphaTrade working in collaboration with the Federal Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources developed a wholesale electricity price index (WEPI) for the Australian electricity market in November 2002. The WEPI is intended to be a simple, easily reportable index that reflects daily changes to contract and spot market conditions and their effect on the stability of the underlying wholesale price for electricity in the market.

The index, which was launched on 13 November 2002, is intended to provide a proxy for the underlying wholesale market trends on a daily basis. It reflects changes in exchange traded contract and spot prices, load conditions and the proportion of total load contracted at any one time. The index is calculated for each region separately. As yet, no index exists for Tasmania. Figure 12 tracks the WEPI since 2004.

Figure 12 d-CyphaTrade wholesale electricity price index

Figure 12–d-CyphaTrade wholesale electricity price index since inception–20081112

Top

Frequency control ancillary service prices (FCAS)

Figure 13 shows weekly ancillary services costs and as a percentage of the turnover in the energy market since 2004. Tasmanian costs are included from 29 May 2005.

Figure 13 Weekly ancillary services cost and as a percentage of energy market

Figure 13–Weekly cost of frequency control services–20081112

Top

Settlement Residue Auction

Figure 14 shows the inter-regional settlement residue auction proceeds and distributed settlement residues resulting from inter-regional trade.

Figure 14 Settlement residue auction proceeds and residues distributed with price alignment overlaid

Figure 14–SRA proceeds & residues distributed with price alignment overlaid–20081112

Figure 15 shows the annual energy imported into each region since 1999–2000, together with the resulting settlement residues.

Figure 15 Annual regional energy imports and settlement residues

Figure 15–Annual regional energy imports and settlement residues–22 July 2008

Top

Volatility

Figure 16 shows the quarterly trend in the volatility index across all regions during peak periods since market start. It highlights the convergence of price levels and characteristics, especially since early 2001. Tasmania is included from September 2005.

Figure 16 Regional peak price volatility index

Figure 16–Regional peak price volatility index–20081002

See also the analysis of market price volatility attached below.

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