The AER has published its third wholesale gas reserves price assumptions report.
This report contains analysis of the contracted and uncontracted reserves price assumptions submitted to the AER for calendar year 2025, including a high-level, location-based analysis of uncontracted prices.
As the price assumptions are for the 2025 calendar year, the data pre-dates the 2026 Middle East conflict so any effect on price assumptions related to recent events will not be reflected in this report.
Our analysis identified a downward shift in the 2025 contracted reserves price assumptions compared to last year and a narrowing of the spread of the uncontracted price distributions, possibly indicating a more consistent forward view on future gas prices at the time of reporting.
Background
This report follows the implementation of gas market transparency reforms and the commencement of the National Gas Amendment (Market Transparency) Rule 2022, which introduced reporting requirements for gas field owners.
Under the National Gas Rules, gas field owners are required to report to the AER on the gas reserve price assumptions used to prepare gas reserves estimates. Simultaneously Bulletin Board (BB) reporting entities are required to submit their gas reserves and resources information to AEMO.
The AER is required to publish, at least annually, on the price assumptions used by gas field owners.
The AER’s reserves price assumptions publications are intended to help build transparency around the field operator segment of the gas supply chain, informing gas market participants, policy-makers and regulators in the East Coast Gas Market.