The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) today published a report on significant prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) across January to March 2026.
This is the first report published under the revised Significant price reporting guidelines (Guideline) outcome criteria.
Instead of the fixed $5,000/MWh price to determine a significant price outcome, the AER will now take a principles-based approach to select the significant price outcomes each quarter and report on a minimum of four days.
A total of 16 days were considered in the quarter, with the highest 30-minute energy prices ranging from $336/MWh to $20,158/MWh, both in South Australia, and Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) prices ranging from $809/MW to $6,843/MW, both in Tasmania.
Five of these 16 days were determined to be significant price outcomes for reporting covering FCAS and energy markets in Tasmania and South Australia.
All three significant price outcome days in Tasmania occurred when the Basslink interconnector was either offline or unable to transfer FCAS, requiring Tasmania to supply its own FCAS and, on one occasion, energy.
The significant price outcome impact on Tasmania’s quarterly volume-weighted average energy price was minimal despite the FCAS price spikes contributing to increased local FCAS costs in Tasmania.
In South Australia, significant price outcomes occurred over two days under tight supply-demand conditions, including high demand during exceptional heat, low wind generation and network limitations, with rebidding also contributing to the prices. Prices above $5,000/MWh increased the region’s quarterly volume-weighted average energy price by $63/MWh to $144/MWh.
Background
Significant price outcomes reporting
The AER is required to report into significant price outcomes in the NEM.
The AER applies a principles-based approach when selecting the price outcomes to report on. As a result of applying this methodology, a minimum of four days will be reported on as significant price outcomes each quarter.
A significant price outcome may occur due to a variety of factors, including outages that adversely affect supply-demand conditions in the wholesale market.
The AER’s role in monitoring wholesale energy markets and reporting on high price events helps to enhance market transparency and compliance.
Our analysis provides a foundation to detect non-compliance, market irregularities, inefficiencies, and consumer harm. We draw on this work to advise stakeholders and market bodies on wholesale market issues.